00:02 - 00:07
as the saying goes consistency builds
00:04 - 00:09
trust for decades the US has been a
00:07 - 00:11
global superpower but in just over 3
00:09 - 00:14
weeks president Donald Trump has
00:11 - 00:16
bewildered friends and Bamboozled foes
00:14 - 00:19
so how will his second term reshape the
00:16 - 00:22
role of the US on the world stage and
00:19 - 00:24
can the world still trust the US this is
00:22 - 00:28
Inside Story
00:39 - 00:43
hello there I'm James Baye there's
00:40 - 00:45
growing International uncertainty about
00:43 - 00:48
what America stands for or what it's
00:45 - 00:50
committed to last week president Donald
00:48 - 00:53
Trump proposed the US take over Gaza and
00:50 - 00:56
forcibly relocate Palestinians he
00:53 - 00:58
announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada
00:56 - 01:01
within hours the levies were put on hold
00:58 - 01:03
for 30 days are still reeling from
01:01 - 01:05
Trump's first term when he withdrew the
01:03 - 01:07
us from the Iran nuclear deal a
01:05 - 01:09
carefully crafted agreement with world
01:07 - 01:12
powers to limit Tan's nuclear
01:09 - 01:14
development he also reversed President
01:12 - 01:17
Barack Obama's opening to Cuba left the
01:14 - 01:20
UN cultural agency UNESCO and pulled out
01:17 - 01:22
of the Paris agreement on climate change
01:20 - 01:24
now he has defense Alliance NATO on edge
01:22 - 01:27
hinting at a US withdrawal unless
01:24 - 01:29
members increase military spending
01:27 - 01:31
negotiating tactics or not Trump's
01:29 - 01:34
actions may have already caused
01:31 - 01:36
irreparable damage so how will countries
01:34 - 01:39
react and will his second presidency
01:36 - 01:42
speed up the emergence of a new world
01:39 - 01:47
order the United States will withdraw
01:42 - 01:49
from the Paris climate ACC Court drill
01:47 - 01:53
baby drill the first item that President
01:49 - 01:55
Trump is signing is the recision of 78
01:53 - 01:59
Biden era executive actions the word
01:55 - 02:01
tariff properly used is a beautiful word
01:59 - 02:02
we're thinking in terms of of 25% on
02:01 - 02:06
Mexico and Canada because they're
02:02 - 02:08
allowing vast numbers of people Canada's
02:06 - 02:10
very bad abuser also vast numbers of
02:08 - 02:13
people to come in and fentol to come in
02:10 - 02:15
well the European Union charges us 20%
02:13 - 02:17
plus plus plus and we are treated so
02:15 - 02:20
badly before I even arrive at the Oval
02:17 - 02:23
Office I will have the disastrous war
02:20 - 02:25
between Russia and Ukraine settled we're
02:23 - 02:27
protecting them you know they're not
02:25 - 02:28
protecting us so I don't think we should
02:27 - 02:30
be spending I'm not sure we should be
02:28 - 02:32
spending anything you going to used to
02:30 - 02:34
buy go we uh we're not going to buy
02:32 - 02:35
anything we're going to have it and
02:34 - 02:36
we're going to keep it and we're going
02:35 - 02:39
to make sure that there's going to be
02:36 - 02:42
peace Saturday at 12:00 if they're not
02:39 - 02:42
here all hell is going to break
02:45 - 02:49
out well let's meet today's panel who
02:47 - 02:51
are going to discuss all of this with us
02:49 - 02:53
in Dublin we have Scott Lucas who's
02:51 - 02:56
professor of us and international
02:53 - 02:58
politics at University College Dublin
02:56 - 03:00
from Doha we're joined by Ibrahim frat
02:58 - 03:02
an associate professor of conflict
03:00 - 03:04
resolution at the Doha Institute of
03:02 - 03:06
Graduate Studies and in Vienna Roger
03:04 - 03:08
Hilton a non-resident fellow at the
03:06 - 03:11
Canadian Global Affairs Institute and
03:08 - 03:13
the specialist on NATO and Euro Atlantic
03:11 - 03:17
security thank you all three of you for
03:13 - 03:19
joining us today on Inside Story it is
03:17 - 03:22
just over 3 weeks since Donald Trump was
03:19 - 03:26
inaugurated the 47th president of the US
03:22 - 03:28
Ibrahim such a whirlwind and Far Far
03:26 - 03:31
hose of um far-reaching decisions it
03:28 - 03:33
doesn't seem like 3 weeks
03:31 - 03:36
well yes this actually makes us Wonder
03:33 - 03:38
uh if this is all happening in 3 weeks
03:36 - 03:41
how is it going to look like for the
03:38 - 03:43
rest of the four years the second term
03:41 - 03:46
for Donald Trump in the in three weeks
03:43 - 03:50
he has declared a war on the entire
03:46 - 03:52
world uh from China to Canada to Europe
03:50 - 03:56
to the Middle East um he has lost his
03:52 - 04:00
trust among his even closest allies um
03:56 - 04:04
the European Union NATO um with his
04:00 - 04:07
neighbors Mexico and Canada um so and he
04:04 - 04:09
caused the disasters actually here in
04:07 - 04:15
the region in the Middle East where
04:09 - 04:18
after 15 months of a genocide that's uh
04:15 - 04:20
the world is watching live on TV for the
04:18 - 04:23
past 15 months instead of stopping the
04:20 - 04:26
genocide he has declared um a new
04:23 - 04:30
disaster actually of new displacement of
04:26 - 04:32
the Palestinians or u in Gaza
04:30 - 04:34
despite all the displacements that they
04:32 - 04:37
have been going through over the past
04:34 - 04:41
decades so uh it doesn't look like we're
04:37 - 04:44
going to go on a quiet for years with
04:41 - 04:47
Donald Trump and uh we should be I mean
04:44 - 04:50
we the word should be ready um and
04:47 - 04:53
prepared how to deal uh with someone
04:50 - 04:55
with such thinking um in the White House
04:53 - 04:57
and how to respond to him Scott it's
04:55 - 05:00
worth pointing out isn't it that all the
04:57 - 05:01
things he's done are actually executive
05:00 - 05:04
orders in other countries you'd call
05:01 - 05:07
them presidential decrees none of this
05:04 - 05:09
was legislation that went through
05:07 - 05:12
Congress now one of the reasons that the
05:09 - 05:15
US system of government is respected and
05:12 - 05:17
trusted around the world is the system
05:15 - 05:19
of checks and balances the uh three
05:17 - 05:21
co-equal branches of power what happened
05:21 - 05:27
that it's gone or at least the Trump
05:25 - 05:30
Administration including effectively an
05:27 - 05:33
unelected co-president Elon Musk
05:30 - 05:34
don't believe in checks and balances uh
05:33 - 05:36
we're going to be talking about Foreign
05:34 - 05:39
Affairs but this is in the context of an
05:36 - 05:44
attempt by Trump and mosque to tear down
05:39 - 05:46
the US system uh by trying to get
05:44 - 05:50
unauthorized access to records involving
05:46 - 05:52
trillions of dollars uh by using 19 to
05:50 - 05:55
26 year old men to do that by trying to
05:52 - 05:57
undermine and even destroy agencies such
05:55 - 06:00
as the US agency for International
05:57 - 06:02
Development uh by trying to fire Purge
06:00 - 06:04
thousands of employees including senior
06:02 - 06:06
staff including the heads of oversight
06:04 - 06:08
boards because this is an attempt and we
06:06 - 06:11
need to be honest here to move to an
06:08 - 06:13
autocracy and to get an autocracy you
06:11 - 06:16
have to try to bypass Congress or bend
06:13 - 06:18
it to your to its will which it succeed
06:16 - 06:20
in doing so far because the Republicans
06:18 - 06:23
who have the majority in both houses are
06:20 - 06:25
not opposing Trump and you have to
06:23 - 06:27
bypass the courts or say they're
06:25 - 06:29
illegitimate which we're on the verge of
06:27 - 06:32
talking about with JD Vance the vice
06:29 - 06:34
president saying just last weekend that
06:32 - 06:37
uh the court should not be able to make
06:34 - 06:40
legal rulings on Executive action the US
06:37 - 06:42
has always had a very strong executive
06:40 - 06:44
uh there's been a lot of Presidential
06:42 - 06:47
Power but up until now it has been
06:44 - 06:49
within a system in which there was a
06:47 - 06:51
collaboration uh between the three
06:49 - 06:53
branches of government we're in a new
06:51 - 06:56
era now we're talking about about at
06:53 - 06:59
home and abroad that Donald Trump and uh
06:56 - 07:01
Mr musk they function not for Alliance
06:59 - 07:04
they function not for America they
07:01 - 07:07
function not for checks and balances
07:04 - 07:09
they function for Donald Trump
07:07 - 07:12
alone Roger um inauguration day as
07:09 - 07:14
Ibrahim said only just over three weeks
07:12 - 07:16
ago I was there in DC given everything
07:14 - 07:19
that happens it seem an awfully long
07:16 - 07:22
time ago but we go back to that day one
07:19 - 07:24
of the first of many executive orders on
07:22 - 07:27
that day was pulling out of the Paris
07:24 - 07:30
climate deal for the second time Trump
07:27 - 07:34
did it back in 2017 so can the US do you
07:30 - 07:37
think in any way now be trusted by the
07:34 - 07:39
world with regard to The Climate crisis
07:37 - 07:40
arguably the most important issue for
07:40 - 07:44
planet uh thank you for the invite if
07:42 - 07:45
you don't mind before touching on
07:44 - 07:47
climate I just wanted to respond to what
07:45 - 07:49
one of my colleagues had mentioned in
07:47 - 07:51
Doha he started off his intervention by
07:49 - 07:53
saying that you know in the first three
07:51 - 07:55
weeks Donald Trump had irreversibly
07:53 - 07:58
damage the relations between allies
07:55 - 08:00
there's no doubt that there has been a
07:58 - 08:02
shock and there's a new d damic of
08:00 - 08:04
negotiations but 3 weeks in in my
08:02 - 08:07
opinion it's just too early to say so
08:04 - 08:10
bluntly that you know the relations are
08:07 - 08:12
irreversible yes there's been some very
08:10 - 08:13
um inappropriate and unfortunate
08:12 - 08:16
comments regarding let's say Greenland
08:13 - 08:17
or even myo country from from Canada but
08:16 - 08:19
I think it's important to realize that
08:17 - 08:22
these countries whether it's Denmark
08:19 - 08:23
Canada they are adapting and just last
08:22 - 08:25
week in a rare moment you had the
08:23 - 08:28
Japanese PM who is coming who is on good
08:25 - 08:30
relations so this is not a Walkin the
08:28 - 08:32
park with Donald Trump you have to earn
08:30 - 08:34
his trust obviously you have to bring
08:32 - 08:35
something to the table but I just think
08:34 - 08:38
at the beginning for our viewers things
08:35 - 08:40
maybe aren't as terrible got your point
08:38 - 08:43
but on on climate can the US now be
08:40 - 08:45
trusted on this issue at all well listen
08:43 - 08:47
no I mean I don't I think the the only
08:45 - 08:49
advantage of him coming back is that
08:47 - 08:51
this was not a big surprise uh I think
08:49 - 08:53
everybody expected it it gave the
08:51 - 08:56
International Community uh the time and
08:53 - 08:58
the opportunity to plan for it uh
08:56 - 09:00
unfortunately due to sort of the weak
08:58 - 09:01
economic situation of Europe I think the
09:00 - 09:03
real victims of this are going to be the
09:01 - 09:05
islands and all of the countries who are
09:03 - 09:08
most exposed to it but as I said climate
09:05 - 09:09
security uh and climate control climate
09:08 - 09:11
change in general was not one of his
09:09 - 09:12
priorities so I don't think people
09:11 - 09:14
should be shocked by this and just
09:12 - 09:15
because he's pulled out of this doesn't
09:14 - 09:17
mean it applies to other things like
09:15 - 09:21
Article Five for
09:17 - 09:23
NATO okay Ibrahim in terms of um us
09:21 - 09:25
International agreements and treaties
09:23 - 09:26
not just the climate deal there are so
09:25 - 09:29
many I mean he pulled out of the Iran
09:26 - 09:30
nuclear uh deal last time he was
09:29 - 09:32
President he pulled out of the
09:30 - 09:35
trans-pacific partnership now we've got
09:32 - 09:36
the threats against Panama there's a
09:35 - 09:40
treaty there there was a treaty that the
09:36 - 09:42
US signed originally in 1977 when Jimmy
09:40 - 09:44
Carter was President I mean does the
09:42 - 09:47
US's word stand for anything and does
09:44 - 09:50
that matter on other issues for example
09:47 - 09:53
the Abraham Accords which Trump wants to
09:50 - 09:55
expand well additionally to the all the
09:53 - 09:58
shocking things that Trump is doing
09:55 - 10:02
actually it's the colleague from Vienna
09:58 - 10:04
it's it's also shocking that he's still
10:02 - 10:06
considering you know what Trump is
10:04 - 10:10
planning to do or what Trump is is
10:06 - 10:13
saying he's openly clearly called for
10:10 - 10:18
for the annexation of Canada right a
10:13 - 10:21
neighbor and a NATO member right that
10:18 - 10:24
and and he tweeted on that right putting
10:21 - 10:27
the American flag on North America
10:24 - 10:30
clearly so this is something that's done
10:27 - 10:34
by Donald Trump himself not only this
10:30 - 10:38
but also the U this is we we have seen
10:34 - 10:40
four years of his term in the first year
10:38 - 10:44
in in the first term and we've seen what
10:40 - 10:46
he has done uh during that time and also
10:44 - 10:49
this is the second time withdrawing from
10:46 - 10:52
the climate agreement Paris climate
10:49 - 10:55
agreement so what additional evidence
10:52 - 10:59
that do we need to see that in order
10:55 - 11:02
to what he calls to earn the trust you
10:59 - 11:05
have someone who's calling for the
11:02 - 11:08
displacement uh of an entire population
11:05 - 11:11
in Gaza right under mining international
11:08 - 11:14
law we should all be cons extremely
11:11 - 11:15
concerned not only about what Trump's
11:14 - 11:19
saying but the implications for
11:15 - 11:21
international law
11:19 - 11:23
undermining undermining international
11:21 - 11:25
law whether it's in terms of withdrawing
11:23 - 11:28
from the climate change agreement or for
11:25 - 11:31
calling for continuing a genocide
11:28 - 11:34
basically another form of genocide and
11:31 - 11:38
here he's raising the threshold for what
11:34 - 11:40
the world Community is or can tolerate
11:38 - 11:44
in terms of what a trump is is coming
11:40 - 11:47
from a a superpower calling for a clear
11:44 - 11:49
displacement of an entire Community
11:47 - 11:51
Panama for example the Panama Canal but
11:49 - 11:53
more importantly perhaps because they're
11:51 - 11:55
NATO countries uh Greenland which is
11:53 - 11:57
part of the Kingdom of Denmark and
11:55 - 12:00
Canada which he as we we we heard there
11:57 - 12:03
he wants to make the 50 first state he
12:00 - 12:05
says I mean these are close friends of
12:03 - 12:08
the United States that's the bit that
12:05 - 12:10
seems most shocking to me I mean even if
12:08 - 12:12
he doesn't follow through on some of
12:10 - 12:16
these things what do you think it sets
12:12 - 12:18
as a precedent given the backdrop of the
12:16 - 12:21
invasion of Ukraine given the fact that
12:18 - 12:24
we know China thinks that Taw Taiwan
12:21 - 12:27
belongs to China well I I think that's
12:24 - 12:29
an interesting contrast between Ibrahim
12:27 - 12:31
and Roger and and how they see
12:29 - 12:33
Trump uh you know ibrahim's point of
12:31 - 12:35
view is is that you you just can't deal
12:33 - 12:37
with Trump that there's no way to engage
12:35 - 12:39
with it whereas if I understand Rogers
12:37 - 12:42
correctly he's saying look you can still
12:39 - 12:44
engage with Trump uh on specific issues
12:42 - 12:47
like the Japanese have tried to do I
12:44 - 12:49
mean my point of view here is is that
12:47 - 12:51
you can engage with Trump but you can
12:49 - 12:52
engage with him as a transactional
12:51 - 12:54
president in other words you have to
12:52 - 12:56
give Trump something which is not
12:54 - 12:59
something for America it's something
12:56 - 13:02
that makes Donald Trump look good and
12:59 - 13:04
that may not match up to American
13:02 - 13:06
interest it certainly doesn't match up
13:04 - 13:08
to multilateral interest I think that's
13:06 - 13:11
the starting point the Trump folks don't
13:08 - 13:12
think in terms of multilateralism as
13:11 - 13:15
Marco Rubio the new secretary of state
13:12 - 13:18
said the post-war International order is
13:15 - 13:20
Obsolete and that means former allies
13:18 - 13:22
have to recalibrate the European Union
13:20 - 13:25
has to recalibrate Gulf States have to
13:22 - 13:27
recalibrate Japan has to recalibrate how
13:25 - 13:29
they make these approaches my worry here
13:27 - 13:31
beyond all of this is and this is what's
13:29 - 13:34
different about Trump
13:31 - 13:37
2.0 is that Trump is damaging the US
13:34 - 13:41
institutions that you deal with so for
13:37 - 13:43
example there is a ban on climate change
13:41 - 13:46
you cannot mention it if you're a US
13:43 - 13:47
agency now us scientists are barred from
13:46 - 13:50
collaborating with International
13:47 - 13:53
colleagues not only on environmental
13:50 - 13:56
issues but on health issues the state
13:53 - 13:59
department the FBI intelligence agencies
13:56 - 14:01
are effectively being told you are
13:59 - 14:04
paralyzed and cannot act until you prove
14:01 - 14:05
you're loyal to Donald Trump that's the
14:04 - 14:08
worry here whether we talk about dealing
14:05 - 14:10
with allies or with adversaries the US
14:08 - 14:13
system itself may not be able to
14:10 - 14:14
function effectively on any of these key
14:13 - 14:18
issues that we're going to talk about
14:14 - 14:20
today Roger as an expert but also as a
14:18 - 14:22
Canadian because Canada has been in the
14:20 - 14:24
firing line in the last couple of weeks
14:22 - 14:27
what do you think about the way this is
14:24 - 14:29
being done the way Donald Trump does
14:27 - 14:32
this because there's no quart
14:29 - 14:36
negotiation or quart diplomacy it's all
14:32 - 14:39
done very very publicly very impulsively
14:36 - 14:41
very aggressively that's not the way
14:39 - 14:43
allies normally talk to each other I
14:41 - 14:45
mean if I'm being quite honest with you
14:43 - 14:46
I don't think I felt much worse in my
14:45 - 14:48
life than hearing some of the comments
14:46 - 14:50
coming from the president Canada has
14:48 - 14:53
gone to war with the United States we
14:50 - 14:55
have the longest uh undefended border
14:53 - 14:57
there's so much uh you know not just the
14:55 - 14:59
trade but the cultural relations so of
14:57 - 15:01
course I mean Elon Musk coming on in
14:59 - 15:03
referring to the Prime Minister as just
15:01 - 15:05
a governor of the 51st state is quite
15:03 - 15:07
frankly Beyond despicable but again
15:05 - 15:10
going back to what Scott said and and my
15:07 - 15:12
colleague in Doha I mean obviously look
15:10 - 15:13
nobody wants to hear this and as the PM
15:12 - 15:16
said you know we don't want this trade
15:13 - 15:18
War but you know we have huge things at
15:16 - 15:20
stake financially and of course the
15:18 - 15:22
Canadian government and Ottawa has moved
15:20 - 15:24
Heaven and Hell uh you know to try to
15:22 - 15:25
avoid this trade War uh of course
15:24 - 15:28
they've accelerated a lot of things that
15:25 - 15:29
have already been agreed to but this is
15:28 - 15:31
no way to really talk to allies but
15:29 - 15:34
unfortunately this is the reality we are
15:31 - 15:35
in and it takes uh you know a new
15:34 - 15:37
Dynamic and a new language to
15:35 - 15:38
communicate and behind the scenes at
15:37 - 15:41
least speaking from the Canadian
15:38 - 15:43
perspective while nonperfect things are
15:41 - 15:44
still going on fairly well between uh
15:43 - 15:46
Secretary of State of Rubio and foreign
15:44 - 15:48
minister Jolie same thing with the
15:46 - 15:51
National Security adviser so whether
15:48 - 15:53
it's Panama Canada Japan Denmark whoever
15:51 - 15:55
the next country is we all have to adapt
15:53 - 15:57
to the new situation and as you see with
15:55 - 15:59
Europe I mean they've also put forward a
15:57 - 16:01
whole host of options about Trump to
15:59 - 16:04
avoid the trade War whether it's buying
16:01 - 16:07
more LNG buying more American Arms um to
16:04 - 16:08
sort of push this off but I mean this is
16:07 - 16:09
the world we're in right now and it's
16:09 - 16:15
die I mean Ibrahim there may be many
16:12 - 16:17
people around the world who never fully
16:15 - 16:18
trusted the US it's like any other
16:17 - 16:21
country it has its own national
16:18 - 16:23
interests but they perhaps at least knew
16:21 - 16:26
where they thought the US stood they
16:23 - 16:28
trusted where the US stood on issues and
16:26 - 16:30
one of the things it used to stand for
16:28 - 16:32
was help for the poor and needy around
16:30 - 16:36
the world and now we've seen what's
16:32 - 16:38
happened to us a I mean how concerned
16:36 - 16:40
are you about that
16:38 - 16:43
development thank you well let me link
16:40 - 16:45
this actually to what my colleagues have
16:43 - 16:47
said and I'm I'm not against engagement
16:45 - 16:49
I'm a conflict resolution professor and
16:47 - 16:53
I spent my entire life my career
16:49 - 16:55
actually advocating for engagement but
16:53 - 16:58
we should be clear about what we what we
16:55 - 17:01
what things we can engage with yes we
16:58 - 17:03
can engage on interest of how we can
17:01 - 17:06
maximize our own interest and how we we
17:03 - 17:10
can negotiate it but my friends we
17:06 - 17:13
cannot we cannot engage or
17:10 - 17:15
negotiate right with Donald Trump on
17:13 - 17:19
issues that are related to international
17:15 - 17:22
law not on values on values of a human
17:19 - 17:24
society not on sovereignty of a
17:22 - 17:27
neighboring country that's calling for
17:24 - 17:30
annexation of a neighboring country I
17:27 - 17:33
cannot engage with a president a
17:30 - 17:36
superpower president on values of
17:33 - 17:40
negotiating with him whether to displace
17:36 - 17:42
a whole Community Force displacement and
17:40 - 17:45
continuation of genocide there is no
17:42 - 17:48
engagement on this ground sovereignty
17:45 - 17:50
human values there is no engagement on
17:48 - 17:53
these levels there is a confrontation on
17:50 - 17:55
them and that's the difference where
17:53 - 17:58
between my colleagues and I engagement
17:55 - 18:00
can happen on maximization of interest
17:58 - 18:03
and back to your question on
18:00 - 18:07
humanitarian intervention you know us
18:03 - 18:09
Aid right there will be millions and
18:07 - 18:11
millions of people will be affected as a
18:09 - 18:16
result of the war that he declared on
18:11 - 18:19
USA uh that has been serving poor people
18:16 - 18:21
hospitals uh school education in many
18:19 - 18:25
marginalized communities around the
18:21 - 18:29
world that they're going to be affected
18:25 - 18:32
as a result of the Mask Trump attack for
18:29 - 18:34
declaring on on USA those those
18:32 - 18:36
communities are going to suffer
18:34 - 18:39
immensely and they're going to
18:36 - 18:41
experience disasters I cannot engage on
18:39 - 18:44
these values and that's where Donald
18:41 - 18:47
Trump should be confronted not engaged
18:44 - 18:52
with um not only this in the first term
18:47 - 18:55
he cut the U the total funding on onra
18:52 - 18:58
that's supporting about 7 million
18:55 - 19:00
Palestinian refugees total cut that he
18:58 - 19:02
that he made with that they were
19:00 - 19:06
affected as a result of this now he is
19:02 - 19:09
pushing for again the shutdown of anra
19:06 - 19:11
where is that supporting that that's B
19:09 - 19:13
the most needed at this time during the
19:11 - 19:15
genocide that's happening in Gaza how
19:13 - 19:18
can we engage on
19:15 - 19:20
this let me let me just move it on if
19:18 - 19:23
you don't mind Ibrahim and bringing SC
19:20 - 19:25
if you canow me just one final Point
19:23 - 19:28
quickly very quickly with with the
19:25 - 19:31
humanitarian um Dimensions it's not only
19:28 - 19:33
going to be these communities affected
19:31 - 19:35
it's the US national interest that is
19:33 - 19:38
going to be affected and Mark robu knows
19:35 - 19:40
this very well go back to his speeches
19:38 - 19:44
in the in the Congress that he was one
19:40 - 19:46
of the strongest advocates for securing
19:44 - 19:51
National interest American National
19:46 - 19:51
interest through us a and
19:53 - 19:58
for Scott bringing you in now we're less
19:56 - 20:01
than two weeks away from what is the
19:58 - 20:03
third anniversary of Russia's invasion
20:01 - 20:05
of Ukraine let me read you I've got so
20:03 - 20:07
many of these quotes I could have read
20:05 - 20:09
you but the the um NATO Secretary
20:07 - 20:12
General Yen stoltenberg this is from
20:09 - 20:14
2022 we are prepared for the L haul
20:12 - 20:17
we'll support them for as long as it
20:14 - 20:20
takes now given that that sounds very
20:17 - 20:23
Hollow now um given where we are I mean
20:20 - 20:26
do you think Ukraine can trust the us or
20:23 - 20:29
NATO for that
20:26 - 20:31
matter um certainly Ukraine cannot trust
20:29 - 20:33
the Trump Administration and certainly
20:31 - 20:35
the starting point and I agree with
20:33 - 20:38
Ibraham on this is is that you know you
20:35 - 20:40
cannot engage with Donald Trump when it
20:38 - 20:42
comes to for example ethnic cleansing of
20:40 - 20:44
Gaza that's
20:42 - 20:47
unacceptable and the question regarding
20:44 - 20:49
Ukraine and Russia is can you engage
20:47 - 20:50
with the Trump Administration to ensure
20:50 - 20:56
support of Ukraine against that Invasion
20:54 - 20:59
which is going to be entering its fourth
20:56 - 21:00
term fairly soon here we have a bit of a
20:59 - 21:04
complexity where you can't necessarily
21:00 - 21:06
go on a yes no issue and that is first
21:04 - 21:08
of all Donald Trump himself doesn't have
21:06 - 21:10
much knowledge of Ukraine and Russia so
21:08 - 21:13
the question is what form would that
21:10 - 21:15
negotiation take the starting point for
21:13 - 21:18
that probably is is that Ukraine will
21:15 - 21:21
accept a Russian occupation of parts of
21:18 - 21:24
Ukraine in the short term in return for
21:21 - 21:26
security guarantees whether that's an
21:24 - 21:28
actual invitation to join NATO or a
21:26 - 21:31
guarantee of support from NATO members
21:28 - 21:33
with continued Aid now there are certain
21:31 - 21:35
members of the Trump
21:33 - 21:38
Administration who have indicated they
21:35 - 21:41
may be open to this that includes the uh
21:38 - 21:44
Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg it
21:41 - 21:45
includes the National Security adviser
21:45 - 21:50
Waltz the problem here is is will they
21:48 - 21:53
be the adults in the room who will be
21:50 - 21:57
listened to or Will trump in terms of
21:53 - 21:59
being very impetuous decide look on his
21:57 - 22:01
own accord or through someone like his
21:59 - 22:03
personal friend with Steve witkoff we're
22:01 - 22:05
going to negotiate directly with the
22:03 - 22:07
Russians there are indications that
22:05 - 22:09
Trump is actually moving towards that
22:07 - 22:11
point of view I think we'll see at the
22:09 - 22:13
Munich security conference this weekend
22:11 - 22:16
where Vladimir zalinski will meet us
22:13 - 22:17
officials for the first time vice
22:16 - 22:20
president Vance treasury secretary
22:17 - 22:22
bezant whether or not you can trust not
22:20 - 22:23
trust the United States whether or not
22:22 - 22:26
the Trump Administration can be part of
22:23 - 22:28
the conversation for the longtime
22:26 - 22:29
security of Ukraine or whether Ukraine
22:28 - 22:32
and the rest to the International
22:29 - 22:34
Community has to step up to give Ukraine
22:32 - 22:37
those assurances while the United States
22:34 - 22:38
may put itself on the sidelines or even
22:37 - 22:40
on the side of Vladimir Putin yeah I
22:38 - 22:41
Scott I think Munich will be important
22:40 - 22:46
and I'm going to be there covering it
22:41 - 22:49
for Al jazer um Roger um NATO 75 years
22:46 - 22:52
old last year they gather again for
22:49 - 22:54
their Summit in June Donald Trump will
22:52 - 22:57
be there give us an idea not just on
22:54 - 23:00
Ukraine but how do you think NATO allies
22:57 - 23:02
are going to to be feeling right now
23:00 - 23:04
pretty uneasy I would
23:02 - 23:07
think yeah James if I just may comment
23:04 - 23:09
back on on what Scott said I mean uh
23:07 - 23:11
obviously the way Kev and the zalinsky
23:09 - 23:12
administration is dealing with it I mean
23:11 - 23:15
I think they've actually stepped up to
23:12 - 23:17
the plate quite well they understand the
23:15 - 23:18
audience uh and correct me if I'm wrong
23:17 - 23:21
Scott I mean I think you have treasury
23:18 - 23:23
secretary Binet now in Kiev looking uh
23:21 - 23:25
at sort of the rare earth minerals and
23:23 - 23:27
whatnot so again just for the viewers I
23:25 - 23:30
mean it's not an optimal situation but
23:27 - 23:31
Kiev has adapted to the situation they
23:30 - 23:33
know that this is sort of a legacy issue
23:31 - 23:36
for Trump about getting peace so again
23:33 - 23:38
whether it's the rare earth
23:36 - 23:40
minerals sorry the rare Earths for
23:38 - 23:42
example I mean the US used to do things
23:40 - 23:44
because it believed in freedom and
23:42 - 23:47
democracy not for for transactional
23:44 - 23:48
reasons didn't it I I agree but I mean
23:47 - 23:51
at the moment the number one priority
23:48 - 23:53
for Kev right now is survival and making
23:51 - 23:55
sure that the the line doesn't collapse
23:53 - 23:57
any faster that it's going now again
23:55 - 23:59
it's it's not in things would have been
23:57 - 24:00
much different if Vice president Harris
23:59 - 24:02
had won it but this is the reality of
24:00 - 24:05
the situation and they're evolving as
24:02 - 24:07
things go we can talk on another episode
24:05 - 24:09
about values and whatnot but as I said I
24:07 - 24:11
mean Russia now there was the prisoner
24:09 - 24:13
exchange yesterday and as you see from
24:11 - 24:15
the tweets also James I mean it's you
24:13 - 24:17
know Trump has said massive sanctions to
24:15 - 24:18
come unless Russia comes to the table
24:17 - 24:21
Russia doesn't seem inclined to want to
24:18 - 24:22
negotiate right now at the moment so the
24:21 - 24:25
way the Optics are looking at least it
24:22 - 24:28
might be better for Kiev when it comes
24:25 - 24:31
to Nato I mean 75 years there's been all
24:28 - 24:35
types of flavors uh of issues 1974 with
24:31 - 24:36
turkey and Cyprus you had the Iraq War
24:35 - 24:38
uh again I think just like my earlier
24:36 - 24:39
comment about the Paris climate Accord I
24:38 - 24:41
mean I think people and the Brain Trust
24:39 - 24:43
within NATO have thought about this for
24:41 - 24:46
a while there's a lot of backup plans uh
24:43 - 24:47
you have Secretary General Ruta uh you
24:46 - 24:49
know who I think is quite good at
24:47 - 24:52
dealing with Trump and even if you go
24:49 - 24:53
back to the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels
24:52 - 24:55
where you know that was the one where
24:53 - 24:58
Trump in the room was talking about
24:55 - 24:59
leaving rout was the one who convinced
24:58 - 25:02
them about taking all the credit for the
24:59 - 25:04
spending um you have 24 of the 32 allies
25:02 - 25:07
where spending is up and I think moving
25:04 - 25:09
towards hey obviously the atmosphere is
25:07 - 25:11
not necessarily maybe so jovial but it
25:09 - 25:13
is the wakeup call that NATO allies
25:11 - 25:16
including my country need to do about
25:13 - 25:18
spending more Trump is looking at a 5%
25:16 - 25:20
Target where if I read correctly this
25:18 - 25:23
morning Poland is going to come in at
25:20 - 25:25
4.7% this year um and anything north of
25:23 - 25:27
3% and tactically speaking all of the
25:25 - 25:30
sabotage asymmetrical Warfare that we've
25:27 - 25:32
seen in the north you've had NATO really
25:30 - 25:34
step up with the Baltic Sentry Force now
25:32 - 25:36
there's the EU is getting more involved
25:34 - 25:39
about taking down the ghost fleets which
25:36 - 25:41
80% of Russia's crude is exiting on so
25:39 - 25:43
again this is another example of NATO
25:41 - 25:45
adapting and more importantly another
25:43 - 25:48
clear sign about why they need to spend
25:45 - 25:50
more whether it's to appease Trump to
25:48 - 25:52
push off the threat uh of trump with the
25:50 - 25:54
Danish intelligence service saying that
25:52 - 25:56
in the next 5 years they could talk and
25:54 - 25:58
last one I mean Europe's competitiveness
25:56 - 26:01
Innovation this is long overdue l in the
25:58 - 26:03
Leta and draggy reports so maybe the
26:01 - 26:04
shock that Europe needs to get their act
26:03 - 26:07
together when it comes to defense
26:04 - 26:09
spending Scott very briefly at the end I
26:07 - 26:12
mean we've still got most of the
26:09 - 26:14
four-year term of trump to come but do
26:12 - 26:16
you think some of the things that have
26:14 - 26:19
happened already are going to change
26:16 - 26:22
things for good can the world return to
26:19 - 26:25
business as usual after
26:22 - 26:27
Trump not at the moment because while
26:25 - 26:30
there may be the ability to deal with
26:27 - 26:32
Trump even to maneuver with Trump on
26:30 - 26:34
individual issues uh you know we've
26:32 - 26:37
talked about tariffs for example we've
26:34 - 26:39
talked about Ukraine for example uh on
26:37 - 26:41
other issues there is not room to
26:39 - 26:44
maneuver with Trump right now Israel
26:41 - 26:47
Gaza is one of them but more importantly
26:44 - 26:48
is the context of that Beyond Trump you
26:47 - 26:51
have to talk about what is the state of
26:48 - 26:54
the US system and here we need to be
26:51 - 26:56
open and clear what is being carried out
26:54 - 26:57
right now in the most serious threat to
26:56 - 27:01
the United States in peace time since
26:57 - 27:04
186 65 is an attempt by Donald Trump and
27:01 - 27:07
his allies including people like Steven
27:04 - 27:11
Miller including people like Elon Musk
27:07 - 27:14
to break the US system entire agencies
27:11 - 27:16
like usaid suddenly swept aside the
27:14 - 27:19
records of other agencies from the
27:16 - 27:21
treasury being stolen even the records
27:19 - 27:23
of the Pentagon being at risk the
27:21 - 27:25
prospect of the head of American
27:23 - 27:28
National Intelligence being someone who
27:25 - 27:30
has been sympathetic to people Bashar
27:28 - 27:32
al-assad in Syria Vladimir Putin in
27:30 - 27:34
Russia you can choose Donald Trump or
27:32 - 27:38
you can choose the US system in the long
27:34 - 27:39
term you cannot choose both that will be
27:38 - 27:42
an issue first and foremost for
27:39 - 27:44
Americans but it will be one that the
27:42 - 27:46
world will have to reckon with and not
27:44 - 27:48
only the next few weeks but the months
27:46 - 27:50
and years to come thank you very much
27:48 - 27:53
gentlemen thank you for joining us today
27:50 - 27:54
Scott Lucas Ibrahim frad and Roger
27:53 - 27:56
Hilton if you didn't catch all of our
27:54 - 27:58
discussion don't worry you can watch
27:56 - 28:01
this and any of our programs again
27:58 - 28:03
whenever you want on our website al.com
28:01 - 28:04
if you have ideas for future topics we
28:03 - 28:06
should discuss on this program please
28:04 - 28:10
share them with us on Facebook
28:06 - 28:12
facebook.com AJ insidestory or message
28:10 - 28:14
us on X where our handle is AJ
28:12 - 28:17
insidestory from the insid story team
28:14 - 28:21
and me James Baye please stay safe and
28:17 - 28:21
well bye-bye for now
28:31 - 28:37
make sure to subscribe to our channel to
28:33 - 28:37
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