00:01 - 00:07
Sitting in his office surrounded by his most
trusted advisors, Xi Jinping feels ready.
00:07 - 00:12
Over the past decade or more, he’s spent
billions upon billions modernizing China’s
00:13 - 00:17
His nation now has nuclear weapons – around
500 of them[a] – and he’s built one of
00:17 - 00:20
the world’s largest navies.
00:20 - 00:23
Add to all of that the fact that China’s
military has more active members than any
00:23 - 00:27
other nation, with 2.035 million people to
call on.[b]
00:27 - 00:29
He's going to bring war to the United States.
00:29 - 00:34
But to do so, he has to carefully coordinate
attacks throughout the Pacific.
00:34 - 00:40
He knows that the United States has bases
in Japan and South Korea – around 190 in
00:40 - 00:45
those two countries alone – and a powerful
navy that, though smaller than his, packs
00:45 - 00:46
a lot more firepower.
00:46 - 00:51
A full-frontal assault on the United States
without taking care of those problems first
00:51 - 00:53
would be suicide.
00:53 - 00:58
He needs to secure the Pacific, giving China
a route toward the American mainland, as a
00:59 - 01:01
His attack doesn’t begin with missile launches.
01:01 - 01:03
It starts on the cyber front.
01:03 - 01:07
For years, China has been working on cyber
technology that would allow it to hack into
01:07 - 01:12
American infrastructure and military defense
systems, limiting America’s response to
01:12 - 01:13
an attack in the process.
01:13 - 01:15
On occasion, China gets caught out.
01:15 - 01:20
In December 2023, for instance, the United
States conducted an operation to disrupt a
01:20 - 01:25
network of small office/home office, or SOHO,
routers that China had taken control of using
01:25 - 01:28
the KV Botnet to mask its hacking activities.
01:28 - 01:30
That was unfortunate for Xi.
01:30 - 01:33
But it won’t stop the first stage of his
attack.
01:33 - 01:36
Xi gives the okay and dozens of cyberattacks
begin.
01:36 - 01:41
Chinese hackers work feverishly, targeting
American water systems, electrical grids,
01:41 - 01:46
and communications systems, with a special
focus on any that are located near key military
01:46 - 01:47
installations.
01:47 - 01:51
Further attacks take place within the networks
of companies that provide critical services
01:51 - 01:56
to America’s military, as well as attacks
on the systems and transportation methods
01:56 - 02:00
that will be used by the United States to
deliver aid to Taiwan in the case of a Chinese
02:01 - 02:03
That last step is critical.
02:03 - 02:07
To reach the United States, China has to secure
a passage through the Pacific.
02:07 - 02:11
Taiwan, which China has claimed for decades
should be part of the People’s Republic
02:11 - 02:14
anyway, is chosen as the main target.
02:14 - 02:18
By securing that island, China can break through
the nations in the Pacific that are allied
02:18 - 02:23
to the United States, including Japan and
South Korea, and clear its route to the American
02:25 - 02:27
The United States is scrambling.
02:27 - 02:31
It’s no stranger to Chinese hackers, but
it’s never faced an operation of this scale
02:32 - 02:36
The country’s success against Volt Typhoon
– the elite group of Chinese hackers that
02:36 - 02:40
were responsible for the KV Botnet attacks
mentioned earlier – revealed that China
02:40 - 02:42
has its fingers in major networks.
02:42 - 02:47
Rail, mass transit, maritime, water, and pipeline
systems were all under threat.
02:47 - 02:52
And though Volt Tycoon has been mostly eradicated,
the sheer scale of the disruption occurring
02:52 - 02:57
in the U.S. reveals that it was far from the
only hacker group China had in play.
02:57 - 03:01
America is left chasing shadows, at least
for a couple of hours, which is all China
03:01 - 03:04
needs to start the next stage of its assault.
03:04 - 03:09
Xi Jinping gives the okay for the next – and
boldest – part of his strategy.
03:09 - 03:12
Activating the People’s Liberation Army
Rocket Force, or PLARF.
03:12 - 03:18
The group has around 120,000 members, who
combine to operate six known ballistic missile
03:18 - 03:20
bases throughout China.
03:20 - 03:26
However, PLARF’s real strength lies in the
sheer number of missiles it has at its disposal.
03:26 - 03:31
Recent estimates from the U.S. Naval Institute
place the number at somewhere around 4,000,
03:31 - 03:36
all of which are capable of targeting ships
moving at sea, in addition to static land-based
03:37 - 03:39
Both capabilities will be needed by Xi.
03:39 - 03:42
In arranging this attack, he’s had to make
some difficult decisions.
03:42 - 03:47
He knew that a launch against Taiwan was inevitable,
and the island nation became his first target.
03:47 - 03:52
A missile barrage begins, with air support
being provided by the recently upgraded airbases
03:52 - 03:55
at Longtian, Zhangzhou, and Huian.
03:55 - 04:00
All three are supporting China with fleets
of Shenyang J-16 fighters, launching missiles
04:00 - 04:03
of their own while engaging Taiwanese defenses
in the air.
04:03 - 04:06
The tougher attacks focus on the U.S. Pacific
Fleet.
04:06 - 04:13
Numbering around 200 ships, along with 1,500
aircraft and 150,000 military personnel, that
04:13 - 04:17
fleet is the biggest barrier that stands in
the way of Xi’s ambitions to invade the
04:17 - 04:18
United States.
04:18 - 04:23
It covers almost half of the world’s surface,
stretching from Antarctica to the Arctic Circle,
04:23 - 04:26
taking in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian
Ocean in the process.
04:26 - 04:29
Xi can’t hit everything in that fleet.
04:29 - 04:34
But his goal is to strategically weaken the
fleet in the early hours of his new war, eliminating
04:34 - 04:38
America’s ability to rapidly respond to
his actions.
04:38 - 04:41
To do that, he needs a three-pronged missile
attack.
04:41 - 04:46
First, he has to target the naval bases the
United States has set up in Japan, South Korea,
04:46 - 04:47
and the Philippines.
04:47 - 04:48
It’s a risky move.
04:48 - 04:53
Any missile strike on these nations will surely
cause collateral damage, potentially bringing
04:53 - 04:56
all three of them into the war in support
of the U.S.
04:56 - 05:02
But failure to strike now means leaving nearly
200 bases ready to launch an immediate counterattack
05:02 - 05:05
supported by around 79,000 troops.
05:05 - 05:07
Xi can’t take that risk.
05:07 - 05:12
Hordes of Dongfeng 26, or DF-26, missiles
are launched toward America’s bases in Japan
05:12 - 05:14
and South Korea.
05:14 - 05:19
Each missile has a range of 2,485 miles, easily
ensuring they can reach their targets.
05:19 - 05:25
They’re accompanied by shorter-range missiles,
such as the DF-16, for a simple reason:
05:25 - 05:29
Xi needs his DF-26s for attacks further afield.
05:29 - 05:33
Those very missiles are also part of the second
part of China’s missile barrage – attacking
05:33 - 05:35
closer to the United States.
05:35 - 05:40
More are sent flying toward Guam, targeting
the Andersen Air Force Base in Yigo, as well
05:40 - 05:42
as Naval Base Guam in Santa Rita.
05:42 - 05:47
Xi also unleashes the new jewel in China’s
missile crown to strike Hawaii.
05:47 - 05:52
The DF-27 is a hypersonic missile that can
just about reach America’s east coast and
05:52 - 05:55
is capable of evading U.S. missile defenses.
05:55 - 05:59
It’ll be Xi’s chief weapon when attacking
the American mainland, at least during the
05:59 - 06:01
early stages of the war.
06:01 - 06:05
Finally, the third strike:
Attacking American ships that are currently
06:05 - 06:06
in the Pacific.
06:06 - 06:11
Chief among the targets will be the small
fleet of cruisers America has in the waters
06:11 - 06:15
near China, including the USS Shiloh and USS
Mobile Bay.
06:15 - 06:19
All told, there are nine of these ships – all
packed with heavy armaments and strong anti-air
06:19 - 06:24
defenses – that China hopes to either eliminate
or damage heavily.
06:24 - 06:28
Secondary targets include the much larger
fleet of U.S. Navy Destroyers, which pack
06:28 - 06:32
less of a punch than the country’s cruisers
but will still be enough to cause serious
06:32 - 06:35
damage to the Chinese fleet if they’re allowed
to go unchecked.
06:35 - 06:39
There are dozens to target and Xi knows that
he won’t be able to take out all of them.
06:39 - 06:43
But the more he can destroy with missiles
now, the easier he’ll find his invasion
06:43 - 06:46
of Taiwan and subsequent passage to America.
06:46 - 06:50
However, Xi’s missiles won’t have clear
paths to their targets.
06:50 - 06:54
Though his cyberattacks have left the United
States scrambling, it hasn’t shut down the
06:54 - 06:56
country’s missile defense systems.
06:56 - 07:01
America’s DSP satellites – overseen by
its Space Force – easily detect China’s
07:01 - 07:05
missile launches, giving President Joe Biden
time to organize the country’s defenses.
07:05 - 07:10
Chief among these will be its Ground-Based
Interceptors, or GBIs, of which there are
07:10 - 07:13
currently 44 active in the United States.
07:13 - 07:17
Most of those systems, 40, are stationed in
Alaska, though they’re still capable of
07:17 - 07:23
destroying intercontinental ballistic missiles,
ICBMs, traveling at around 15,000 miles per
07:24 - 07:28
The other four are stationed in California,
much closer to China’s Hawaiian targets,
07:28 - 07:32
and will be responsible for providing most
of America’s defenses against China’s
07:32 - 07:33
missile barrage.
07:33 - 07:37
There’s just one problem:
What if any of the missiles contain nuclear
07:38 - 07:43
Biden consults his advisors, who conclude
that possibility is unlikely.
07:43 - 07:47
American satellites show that the missiles
are on course to hit its Pacific bases and
07:47 - 07:50
Hawaii, suggesting a conventional strike.
07:50 - 07:54
If Xi were going nuclear, his ICBMs would
be on their way to Washington and other key
07:54 - 07:56
strategic locations in the American mainland.
07:56 - 08:01
Right now, the strategy is clear – evacuate
troops from the anticipated strike zones and
08:01 - 08:02
hunker down.
08:02 - 08:04
A counterattack will come.
08:04 - 08:08
But at present, the U.S. has to rely on its
missile defense systems.
08:08 - 08:12
Across the Pacific, Xi watches and waits as
the first of his missile barrages travel toward
08:12 - 08:15
their targets in Japan and South Korea.
08:15 - 08:19
Both have activated their missile defense
systems to guard America’s bases, with the
08:19 - 08:24
platform they rolled out alongside the U.S.
toward the end of 2023 giving them advance
08:24 - 08:27
notice of the missiles China has launched.
08:27 - 08:30
Many get shot out of the sky, falling harmlessly
into the Pacific.
08:30 - 08:34
But the sheer number of Chinese missiles overwhelm
the defenses.
08:34 - 08:36
Okinawa is practically destroyed.
08:36 - 08:41
As home to most of America’s overseas military
in Japan, it was the chief target of these
08:42 - 08:47
At the Kadena Airbase, missiles rain down
on F-15 Eagle fighters, E-3 Sentry planes,
08:47 - 08:50
and KC-135 Stratotankers.
08:50 - 08:52
The latter are especially important targets.
08:52 - 08:56
They’ll limit America’s ability to refuel
its aircraft in the air, restricting them
08:56 - 09:00
to using the bases that China is so steadfastly
attacking.
09:00 - 09:04
The strike could be considered a success,
killing thousands of American troops in the
09:05 - 09:07
But Xi knows the bases aren’t fully out
of commission.
09:07 - 09:12
He can’t launch a ground-based invasion
just yet, meaning the surviving crews at these
09:12 - 09:16
bases will be able to rebuild quickly enough
to continue to serve as launching points for
09:16 - 09:17
the U.S. Air Force.
09:17 - 09:19
That’s okay.
09:19 - 09:21
He only needs them down for a few days.
09:21 - 09:25
More missiles make their way toward cruisers
and destroyers that the U.S. has stationed
09:25 - 09:26
in the Pacific.
09:26 - 09:29
These ships are a little harder to strike,
not least because they’re not remaining
09:30 - 09:35
Orders from American command have told all
to start moving in erratic patterns, hoping
09:35 - 09:38
to send Chinese missiles off course in the
process.
09:38 - 09:41
The tactic works in some cases, though not
in others.
09:41 - 09:46
China is successful in cutting down about
half of America’s cruisers, as well as several
09:46 - 09:47
dozen destroyers.
09:47 - 09:49
Again, a qualified success for Xi.
09:49 - 09:56
A few minutes later, China’s DF-27 and DF-26
missiles are drawing nearer to Hawaii.
09:56 - 10:00
Dozens are shot out of the skies by California’s
missile defense systems, but they can’t
10:00 - 10:02
provide complete coverage.
10:02 - 10:08
Many more break through, striking ships including
the USS Frank E Petersen and USS Hopper.
10:08 - 10:13
Xi had hoped his strike would also take out
at least some of the 13 submarines stationed
10:13 - 10:15
in Hawaii, but no such luck.
10:15 - 10:19
Even with his cyberattacks wreaking havoc,
the commanders and crews of those submarines
10:19 - 10:24
received orders to submerge underwater, safe
from the missile barrage, until the U.S. was
10:24 - 10:26
ready to fight back.
10:26 - 10:30
By the end of the first few hours of the conflict,
China has expended nearly a quarter of its
10:30 - 10:32
4,000 missiles.
10:32 - 10:36
It has wreaked devastation on the American
bases in Asia, though at the cost of drawing
10:36 - 10:39
Japan and South Korea into Xi’s war.
10:39 - 10:44
America’s Pacific fleet has been severely
weakened, with Xi’s cyberattacks also limiting
10:44 - 10:48
the speed in which the U.S. can respond to
what he’s going to do next.
10:48 - 10:51
The strike’s success wasn’t total.
10:51 - 10:52
But it was enough.
10:53 - 10:57
Having bought himself time with his attack
on the United States, leaving his main enemy
10:57 - 11:03
in a temporary state of disarray, Xi can focus
on his immediate target – Taiwan.
11:03 - 11:07
China has spent the last day battering Taiwan
with short-range missiles.
11:07 - 11:12
The barrage has been successful in taking
out several targets, including the smaller
11:12 - 11:17
islands surrounding Taiwan, but it’s also
faced a steadfast defense from the U.S.-made
11:17 - 11:22
Patriot air defense system stationed on the
island, as well as Taiwan’s own “Sky Bow”
11:22 - 11:25
surface-to-air ballistic missile defense systems.
11:25 - 11:30
Still, the barrage will have to end soon,
if only because Xi wants to send ground troops
11:30 - 11:31
in to take the island.
11:31 - 11:35
He can’t risk killing his own people in
friendly-fire situations.
11:35 - 11:40
After a 24-hour bombardment in which China
expends hundreds of missiles, Xi assesses
11:40 - 11:42
the damage he’s caused.
11:42 - 11:47
Crucially, his attacks on America’s overseas
bases, as well as America itself, will delay
11:47 - 11:49
its navy in reaching the Taiwan Strait.
11:49 - 11:54
And the missiles he’s fired at Taiwan have
severely weakened its naval defenses while
11:54 - 11:59
fighter planes from the Longtian, Zhangzhou,
and Huian keep the country’s air force occupied.
11:59 - 12:03
He feels ready to start landing troops on
the Taiwanese mainland, but therein he finds
12:03 - 12:07
a problem:
His landing options are limited.
12:07 - 12:10
That’s partially due to the actions of Taiwan’s
president, Tsai Ing-wen.
12:10 - 12:15
She’s been preparing for an attack from
China for several months, especially in the
12:15 - 12:20
wake of Beijing growing bolder by conducting
military and naval options in the Taiwan Strait.
12:20 - 12:25
As soon as the missiles started flying, Tsai
sent orders to defensive positions on both
12:25 - 12:26
sides of the island.
12:26 - 12:30
To the east, Taiwan benefits from having an
extensive network of cliffs.
12:30 - 12:34
Tsai anticipates that Xi will look to blockade
that side of the island with his navy, but
12:34 - 12:37
is unlikely to launch a full invasion from
the east.
12:37 - 12:42
Still, soldiers are placed on alert, telling
them to prepare to fight against ground troops
12:42 - 12:46
that might try to climb the cliffs, which
have gradients of at least 15%.
12:46 - 12:50
If need be, those troops will receive orders
to destroy the routes built through the cliffs
12:50 - 12:52
that lead to the mainland.
12:52 - 12:54
Her main focus lies in Taiwan’s west.
12:54 - 12:59
As the coast closest to China, it’s going
to be the point of ingress into the island.
12:59 - 13:04
Tsai places all 15 major ports and harbors
on that coast on high alert, with orders for
13:04 - 13:07
their destruction in place if China’s forces
get near.
13:07 - 13:12
Tsai can’t afford to allow China to set
up a naval presence on the island itself if
13:12 - 13:13
it manages to invade.
13:13 - 13:15
Then, there are Taiwan’s beaches.
13:15 - 13:20
All are heavily fortified, with any Chinese
troops that manage to land having to make
13:20 - 13:24
their way through scores of barbed wire-laden
defenses just to achieve any hope of reaching
13:24 - 13:26
the roads that lead to Taipei.
13:26 - 13:31
The waters leading to most of those beaches
are less than 50 feet deep, meaning China
13:31 - 13:32
can’t land troops en masse.
13:32 - 13:37
It must take them most of the way before ferrying
them across in smaller vessels, all while
13:37 - 13:40
being subjected to missile fire from Taiwan.
13:40 - 13:45
Those waters are also packed with shallow
mines, with the beaches also containing anti-landing
13:45 - 13:48
spikes that will prevent China’s tanks from
making inroads.
13:48 - 13:53
And, if worst comes to worst, Tsai can collapse
the roads leading into Taipei from the West,
13:53 - 13:58
forcing Chinese troops to navigate challenging
terrain if they ever hope to reach Taiwan’s
13:59 - 14:01
Tsai is going to make this a war of attrition.
14:01 - 14:05
And that spells bad news for Xi.
Day 3.
14:05 - 14:09
The United States is almost ready to counter
the initial Chinese offensive.
14:09 - 14:14
But before it does, Biden puts on his diplomatic
hat as he prepares to exploit a key weakness
14:14 - 14:15
in Xi’s plan.
14:15 - 14:19
One of China’s biggest challenges in a war
is economic.
14:19 - 14:26
The country relies heavily on importing goods,
spending $2.56 trillion in 2023 alone.
14:26 - 14:31
Biden has spent the last three days organizing
heavy sanctions against China, with America’s
14:31 - 14:33
network of allies finally paying off.
14:33 - 14:37
China will not only struggle to import goods
and equipment from the United States, but
14:37 - 14:40
it’ll also be cut off from its European
trade partners.
14:40 - 14:45
All agree not to sell to – or buy from – China,
essentially creating a trade blockade for
14:45 - 14:47
as long as the war lasts.
14:47 - 14:49
That blockade extends to oil.
14:49 - 14:54
China imports 11.8 million barrels of oil
per day to keep itself running.
14:54 - 14:59
Much of that oil comes from Russia, which
is now responsible for about 19% of the oil
14:59 - 15:00
China buys annually.
15:00 - 15:05
However, the other 81% comes from countries
like Saudi Arabia, which are allied to the
15:05 - 15:07
United States.
15:07 - 15:11
Leveraging diplomatic pressure, as well as
the concerns that other Asian nations, such
15:11 - 15:16
as Saudi Arabia, have related to Chinese expansion,
Biden is able to cut off most of the oil reaching
15:17 - 15:21
Yes, Russia will still supply Xi, though it
isn’t able to cover the massive shortfall
15:21 - 15:23
that results from America’s sanctions.
15:23 - 15:28
And given Putin’s war in Ukraine, he also
can’t risk Russia’s trade with other countries
15:28 - 15:33
for the sake of solely supporting China, especially
given that he faces his own sanctions.
15:33 - 15:35
Xi didn’t expect this.
15:35 - 15:37
Now, he faces a countdown.
15:37 - 15:41
China has to defeat the United States in a
matter of months, or else its resources will
15:41 - 15:46
dwindle to the point where it’s practically
starved out of the fight that it started.
15:47 - 15:51
With sanctions in place and trade routes in
the process of being cut off, Biden’s next
15:51 - 15:54
move is to speak to his allies in NATO.
15:54 - 16:00
After all, China directly attacked America
on its own soil by launching missiles at Hawaii.
16:00 - 16:05
It also attacked America-owned military bases
overseas, which would also constitute an attack
16:06 - 16:10
All of this plays in Biden’s favor for one
reason:
16:10 - 16:12
Article 5 of the NATO charter.
16:12 - 16:16
According to this article, if any NATO ally
or member nation is the victim of an armed
16:16 - 16:21
attack by another country, every other NATO
member will consider this an act of violence
16:21 - 16:22
against themselves.
16:22 - 16:28
In short, China’s attack on the United States
has brought most of Europe into the fold.
16:28 - 16:33
Biden has been cooperating with NATO members
from the moment he detected China’s missiles.
16:33 - 16:38
Collectively, that makes him ready to utilize
the power of 31 nations, including what’s
16:38 - 16:40
left of the United States’ defenses.
16:40 - 16:44
The focal point of the counterattack is obvious
– the Taiwan Strait.
16:44 - 16:49
Xi has failed to take Taiwan with his missile
barrage and now faces an extended conflict
16:49 - 16:53
in which he’s losing thousands of troops
every day to his attempts to land on Taiwanese
16:54 - 16:58
Even if he manages to break through Taiwan’s
defenses by simply throwing sheer numbers
16:58 - 17:03
at the island, his troops will face an urban
warfare campaign that will see them fight
17:03 - 17:06
tooth and nail for every street they manage
to claim.
17:06 - 17:08
Xi didn’t expect this.
17:08 - 17:13
And this war of attrition all adds up to time
that the U.S. and its allies can take to prepare
17:14 - 17:18
The strategy is to combine America’s naval
resources with those of its NATO allies, as
17:18 - 17:21
well as the navies of South Korea, Japan,
and Australia.
17:21 - 17:26
The latter will also be a focal point of the
counterattack, as China neglected to destroy
17:26 - 17:29
the bases America has set up in Australia.
17:29 - 17:33
The United States sends a fleet of ships,
including most of its stock of 11 aircraft
17:33 - 17:35
carriers, toward the Taiwan Strait.
17:35 - 17:39
They’re accompanied by one of the U.K.’s
aircraft carriers – the HMS Queen Elizabeth
17:39 - 17:44
– loaded with Typhoon FGR4 and F-35B Lightning
jets.
17:44 - 17:49
Similar support comes from Canada, which commits
half of its 12 frigates to the American cause,
17:49 - 17:54
as well as Japan, which sends most of its
fleet of 36 destroyers.
17:54 - 17:55
South Korea hesitates.
17:55 - 17:58
It’s happy to support the U.S. in any way
that it can.
17:58 - 18:03
But it also has to be wary of North Korea,
which could see China’s attack as an opportunity
18:03 - 18:06
for it to start a war with its southern neighbor.
18:06 - 18:11
If South Korea commits its naval or aerial
resources to America now, it leaves itself
18:11 - 18:12
open to attack.
18:12 - 18:16
Biden understands this, resulting in South
Korea’s role being to keep watch over North
18:16 - 18:19
Korea to ensure it doesn’t get involved
in the conflict.
18:19 - 18:24
And now, the U.S. has an allied fighting force
that’s capable of fighting against China
18:24 - 18:26
in the sea or air.
18:26 - 18:28
The fleet sets sail.
18:29 - 18:31
Xi has been bombarding Taiwan to no avail.
18:31 - 18:36
Every attempt to land ground troops on Taiwan’s
beaches is met with missile strikes and fierce
18:36 - 18:37
beach combat.
18:37 - 18:40
Yes, he’s slowly whittling away at those
defenses.
18:40 - 18:45
But for each victory he achieves, a road is
destroyed or a tunnel collapsed by Taiwan,
18:45 - 18:49
forcing his troops to divert over difficult
terrain to get to Taipei.
18:49 - 18:54
The few who manage to reach Taiwan’s capital
have been destroyed in urban warfare.
18:54 - 18:56
This was supposed to be a quick victory.
18:56 - 18:57
It had to be.
18:57 - 19:02
Every day that China doesn’t control Taiwan
is another day in which the American counteroffensive
19:02 - 19:04
draws nearer.
19:04 - 19:09
Finally, two weeks after his missile launches,
Xi faces the prospect of American naval and
19:09 - 19:12
aerial assets reaching the Taiwan Strait.
19:12 - 19:17
Worse yet, they’re supported by NATO and
Japan, neither of which wants to see China
19:17 - 19:21
gain more influence, be it in the Pacific
or the Americas.
19:21 - 19:25
Worse yet for China, its navy, though larger
than America’s, doesn’t compare in terms
19:25 - 19:27
of sheer firepower.
19:27 - 19:31
Though Xi was successful in destroying almost
two dozen of America’s destroyers in his
19:31 - 19:38
missile barrage, that still leaves 68 to contend
with – around 20 more than China has.
19:38 - 19:42
And though China has more Corvettes and patrol
boats, neither will withstand the combined
19:42 - 19:46
naval firepower being brought into the Taiwan
Strait.
19:46 - 19:51
Worse yet for Xi, America has an ace in the
hole – its Rapid Dragon tactic.
19:51 - 19:55
Over the past couple of years, the United
States has been retrofitting some of its cargo
19:55 - 19:59
aircraft so they’re capable of dropping
pallets of long-range missiles.
19:59 - 20:05
Each pallet can be stocked with up to 30 AGM-158
JASSM cruise missiles, which have a range
20:05 - 20:12
of between 229 and 1,118 miles, depending
on which version of the missile is launched.
20:12 - 20:16
Stacked into America’s MC-130J aircraft
– which Xi didn’t target as he didn’t
20:16 - 20:21
believe them to be a threat – these pallets
start raining cruise missiles down onto the
20:21 - 20:22
Taiwan Strait.
20:22 - 20:25
Those missiles serve two purposes.
20:25 - 20:32
If they hit a Chinese ship, their 990-pound
WDU-42/B-Penetrator warheads can easily destroy
20:32 - 20:33
most targets.
20:33 - 20:37
But even if they fail to hit, such a large
barrage of missiles launched simultaneously
20:37 - 20:42
will confuse the missile defense systems built
into China’s larger ships, as well as those
20:42 - 20:46
in the three airbases that are the launching
point for China’s fighter jets.
20:46 - 20:50
While the missile defenses are focused on
a flurry of JASSM cruise missiles, more targeted
20:50 - 20:53
strikes can take out targets.
20:53 - 20:56
The allied forces turn the tide in the Taiwan
Strait.
20:58 - 21:01
Xi has lost the clear passage into Taiwan
that he’d established during his initial
21:02 - 21:06
He’s still getting troops onto the mainland,
though each landing is subjected to Taiwanese
21:06 - 21:11
defenses along with assaults from the U.S.
and its allies’ navies.
21:11 - 21:13
Worse yet, he’s lost air superiority.
21:13 - 21:16
In truth, he never truly had it.
21:16 - 21:22
Taiwan’s 142 F-16 fighter jets, many of
which have been upgraded, may be technologically
21:22 - 21:25
inferior to China’s J-20s.
21:25 - 21:31
The Infra-Red Search and Track, or IRST, built
into the J-20 means it’s more capable of
21:31 - 21:33
tracking and eliminating a target than the
F-16.
21:33 - 21:38
But Tsai knew this, and knew that support
was coming from the U.S. She’s used her
21:38 - 21:43
F-16s to delay rather than defeat China, just
as she’s used her beach and urban warfare
21:43 - 21:48
tactics to keep China from sending hundreds
of thousands of troops into Taipei.
21:48 - 21:53
Now, the U.S. and NATO are in the Taiwan Strait,
and they’re pushing Chinese forces back
21:53 - 21:55
to their home country.
21:55 - 22:00
Constant missile barrages on the Longtian,
Zhangzhou, and Huian air bases have rendered
22:00 - 22:05
them practically unusable, making it a struggle
for China to get new fighters into the air
22:05 - 22:06
as quickly as it had managed before.
22:06 - 22:11
America’s aircraft carriers – of which
it brings eight to the Taiwan Strait – can
22:11 - 22:17
each hold around 75 fighters, bringing the
allied forces to a total of 600 when at full
22:18 - 22:22
Add to that the Rapid Dragon strategy and
America and its allies are shutting down every
22:22 - 22:24
attack China attempts.
22:24 - 22:28
It’s not long before America’s navy cuts
off the passage into Taiwan.
22:28 - 22:33
Cut off from their target, China’s naval
and air forces begin a retreat, leaving the
22:33 - 22:36
few thousand Chinese troops still in Taiwan
stranded.
22:36 - 22:41
They’ll be picked off by Taiwan’s forces
in Taipei, assuming they get there.
22:41 - 22:45
And with the U.S. now firmly entrenched in
the Taiwan Strait, it’s able to land troops
22:45 - 22:49
onto the island’s beaches to attack the
remnants of China’s forces from the rear.
22:49 - 22:53
It’s a lethal pincer movement that soon
puts paid to Xi’s invasion.
22:53 - 22:57
Still, it hasn’t all been clear sailing
for the U.S.
22:57 - 23:02
China has managed to use its strong submarine
fleet, with its six Shang-Class nuclear submarines
23:02 - 23:05
leading the way, to take out two of America’s
aircraft carriers.
23:05 - 23:10
It’s a difficult loss, especially given
that those carriers housed about 150 fighters
23:10 - 23:11
between them.
23:11 - 23:14
But America’s submarines are just as lethal.
23:14 - 23:19
Though it has fewer submarines than China
– around 60 to China’s 78[c] – its crews
23:19 - 23:22
are better trained and have fewer targets
to strike.
23:22 - 23:26
Both of China’s aircraft carriers, brought
into the conflict due to the American assaults
23:26 - 23:30
on its air bases, are taken out, minimizing
China’s impact from the air.
23:30 - 23:35
Xi has to face a very real possibility:
He’s about to lose this war.
23:37 - 23:41
China has stubbornly refused to give in to
the overwhelming force being applied to it.
23:41 - 23:45
The country’s navy lies in tatters, with
only a fleet of patrol boats guarding its
23:45 - 23:49
coast to back the few corvettes and frigates
it has left.
23:49 - 23:53
Xi has called his ships back, anticipating
an invasion by the United States into the
23:53 - 23:54
Chinese mainland.
23:54 - 23:57
Xi has failed to take Taiwan.
23:57 - 24:01
And in attacking the United States directly,
he’s only discovered that America’s NATO
24:01 - 24:05
allies take Article 5 very seriously.
24:05 - 24:09
The same goes for other allies, including
Japan and South Korea, which have aided the
24:09 - 24:13
U.S. both because of their military alliances
with the country and because neither wants
24:13 - 24:16
to see the spread of Chinese influence in
the Indo-Pacific.
24:16 - 24:18
Xi knows he miscalculated.
24:18 - 24:23
Now, he faces a very big question:
Does he launch nuclear weapons?
24:23 - 24:29
China has around 500 nukes, as well as ICBMs
capable of reaching the continental United
24:30 - 24:36
His country’s CSS4 Mod2 Mod3 missiles [d]could
do the job thanks to their 8,000-mile range.
24:36 - 24:42
The DF-41 can also hit the mark as it’s
capable of traveling nearly 7,500 miles.
24:42 - 24:44
But Xi thinks better of it.
24:44 - 24:49
Launching his nuclear weapons against the
United States would mean a response in kind.
24:49 - 24:54
And while America’s Minuteman III ICBMs
lack the range of his missiles, the country’s
24:54 - 24:59
submarines and aerial bombers could easily
drop nukes all over China if provoked.
24:59 - 25:02
Ultimately, China is forced to capitulate.
25:02 - 25:05
Though its military would prove a strong match
for the United States alone, and could even
25:05 - 25:10
have the potential to defeat its American
counterpart, it simply can’t stand up to
25:10 - 25:12
such a powerful united front.
25:12 - 25:17
Taiwan proved stronger than Xi expected, with
his failed invasion meaning plans to reach
25:17 - 25:20
the American mainland never got off the ground.
25:20 - 25:24
And with most of Europe – thanks to NATO
– gunning for him, he can’t escape the
25:24 - 25:26
fact that he’s been overwhelmed.
25:26 - 25:30
Add to all of this the effects of the sanctions
and trade blockades America created within
25:30 - 25:32
days of him starting his war.
25:32 - 25:36
They’ve slowly sapped the morale of the
Chinese people, resulting in them being ready
25:36 - 25:38
for surrender.
25:38 - 25:39
America wins the war.
25:39 - 25:42
But it's a win that came at a cost.
25:42 - 25:45
It will take the U.S. years to rebuild its
war-torn navy.
25:45 - 25:50
And along with its NATO allies, it will be
heavily involved in imposing military restrictions
25:50 - 25:52
on China for years to come.
25:52 - 25:57
However, it’s proven the impact that its
cooperative approach to defense can have in
25:57 - 26:01
a battle against one of its greatest rivals,
putting any other major military power that
26:01 - 26:05
might dare to attack the U.S. on notice in
the process.
26:05 - 26:09
Of course, this is just one of many potential
scenarios that could play out if China and
26:09 - 26:11
the U.S. went to war.
26:11 - 26:13
It’s also optimistic in favor of the U.S.
26:13 - 26:17
But what could China do to prevent this series
of events from happening?
26:17 - 26:21
Would they happen at all, or do you think
the U.S. may struggle to receive the support
26:21 - 26:24
it needs from NATO and its allies in Asia?
26:24 - 26:26
Tell us what you think in the comments below.
26:26 - 26:31
Now go check out US Navy's Plan to Defeat
China in War or click this other video instead!
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